Ignacio Torres, Aldredo Serpell.
JI3 2017, number 9, pages 68-75.
ABSTRACT
This paper seeks to raise the probability of receiving compensation after an arbitration in a contractual dispute within the Chilean construction industry. In order to achieve this, we analysed 98 arbitration procedures in the Chilean construction sector from the Arbitration and Mediation Centre, created a database of that information, and modelled the probabilities of requesting an amount and receiving compensation. On average, the requested amounts were 80% of the original contract value and can be modelled as a normal distribution (μ=0, σ=1) when the data are transformed. The amount of compensation following arbitration could not be modelled as a normal distribution, and the probability was based on the distribution of the data in the histogram. On average, parties are ultimately compensated with 28% of the requested amount.